Stu Blog

I know this thought might not be too popular, but I’m starting to wonder—is this TSA story real?

To be clear, there are two different elements of this story:

a)  Is the enhanced search policy a good policy?  I think this is perfectly legitimate to argue.

b) Are there a lot of outraged people around the country actually being groped?  I’m a little hesitant on this one.

Over the past week or so, we’ve seen almost all of the highly publicized claims of TSA terror be exposed as being overblown or not current.

Off the top of my head:

1) The 3 year old who was crying in the security line—was actually from two years ago.  And children below twelve are exempt from the searches anyway.

2) The radio host who claimed she was handcuffed to a chair and held for an hour—video seems to indicate she  exaggerated her story greatly.

3) Penn Jillette calls cops after being fondled at airport—that was actually from 8 years ago.

4) The “don’t touch my junk” guy—this just seems suspicious to me.  The agent is courteous and understanding, and the junk guy is obviously trying to make a point.  Remember, he doesn’t say he was groped–he is just putting up fuss about the possibility of potentially being groped.   With the exception of the title “groin check” which is the equivalent of calling a burger a “cow flesh sandwich” —the agent’s description sounds pretty cold and clinical to me.

5) The picture of the nun being searched.  I haven’t confirmed this one yet–but a TSA agent that listens to the 4th hour writes in and says “the picture…the one of a Muslim female officer patting down a nun, is at least 3 years old… She’s wearing our old uniform.”

6) The guy who “punched” the TSA agent in Indianapolis.  It had nothing to do with the new policy.  In fact, the guy wasn’t patted down at all.  He willingly went through the body scanner.  He had “a history of medical issues, including two metal implants, a colostomy bag and a fused right wrist” which started a conversation with security.  Of course, most of these items would have also been spotted by a normal metal detector, but the guy “punched” him anyway.  When the officer asked why the man hit him he replied “I was only kidding with you.”

Again, I think it’s fine to criticize the policy.  I don’t understand why we need to start using the front of the hand instead of  the back of the hand, for example.  I don’t like the possibility of images being saved or sent from the scanners, when we were promised that it wouldn’t happen.  I also recognize that if a terrorist wants to bring a weapon on a plane–he’s going to put it near his junk–and we better figure out how to find it, before he decides to use it.

But, regarding the idea that there is some rash of agents grabbing your noodles for no reason, I just haven’t seen evidence of it happening with any level of regularity.  They get close, sure.  But even the pictures from the Denver airport show close calls, not cup-o-noodles.  Maybe it is going on, but I haven’t seen enough in the news, nor have I seen it once–any of the times I’ve flown.  The whole thing just seems odd to me.

Alan Grayson is fundraising off of Glenn’s back again…or at least he thinks he is.  From his desperate final fundraising pitch on his Facebook page:

According to the Examiner, this is what Glenn Beck said on the air, earlier this week:

“It’s OK if the Republicans lose every seat in the Senate and the House except for one. As long as that one is Alan Grayson losing.”

Yes, “according to the Examiner” Glenn did say this:

Beck: …It’s okay if the republicans lose every seat in the Senate and the House except for one. As long as that one is Alan Grayson losing.

But, this isn’t the Washington Examiner, the newspaper–it’s Examiner.com–a collection of bloggers.  The Huffington Post, actually gets the story right:

“Sarah,” one of Beck’s co-hosts said, in a playful intro to the discussion. “I’m wondering if you are on board with my personal aspirations here for this election, which is, it’s okay if the republicans lose every seat in the senate and the house except for one, as long as that one is Alan Grayson losing.”

So, Glenn didn’t even say it.  I did.  The Huffington Post has it right.  In fact, even Alan Grayson’s own Wikipedia page has it right.  So, why would you reference a random blogger over the Obama-approved-news-source, the Huffington Post?  Well, because throwing my name around won’t raise any money for you. Glenn’s will.  When Grayson wants something he will say anything.  Remember this research quality next time he’s talking about an important issue.

Interestingly enough, the Examiner.com blogger who posted this story has posted eleven straight stories about Alan Grayson.  Who posts eleven straight stories about Alan Grayson?  (Except for me, of course.)

Here’s a little handy guide for your election night reference.  It’s based on this page from the NY Times and FiveThirtyEight.  As a conservative, I am more than happy to bash the Times when they screw up–but they do a great job with the pure data of the election.

Anyway—here is what the GOP needs to do in the house (remember, they need 39 seats to regain control.)

If they win all races where they are projected to win by 5 or more, they gain 33 seats.

If they win all races where they are projected to win by 3 or more, they gain 50 seats.

If they win all races where they are projected to win by any amount, they gain 59 seats.

If they win all races where they are projected to win or be within 3 points, they gain 71 seats.

If they win all races where they are projected to win or be within 5 points, they gain 80 seats.

Obviously, they will lose some that we expect them to win.   And they will win some that we expect them to lose. But all things equal–if they win all races in which it looks like they have substantial leads, they are in really good shape.  The GOP would have to win only 6 of the 26 other seats that they are favored in, to win the house.  That’s why sites like Intrade are showing about a 90% chance Republicans will win.

Of course, there’s always the Alan Grayson thesis.  In an interview this weekend that aired on our Miami affiliate 610 WIOD, he said (paraphrasing) ‘The only reason that the polls in 2010 look worse than the polls in 2008 is that democrats have more cell phones.’  Hopefully, this will be just another embarrassing moment in the failed career of former congressman Grayson.  Feels so good to type that.